How we price

Everything below is arithmetic on prices. No model makes up a percentage: the market gives the chance, we only remove the margin from it.

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Fair odds: removing the Pinnacle margin

Pinnacle takes the largest bets with the lowest margin, so its line is sharper than the rest. We turn its odds into probabilities, see that they add up to more than 100%, and divide each one by that sum.

fair chance = (1 / odds) / sum of probabilities; fair odds = 1 / fair chance

Manchester City v Ipswich	Pinnacle	With margin	Fair chance	Fair odds
Man City	1.25	80.0%	77.1%	1.30
Draw	6.50	15.4%	14.8%	6.74
Ipswich	12.00	8.3%	8.0%	12.45

The probabilities add up to 103.7%, so the Pinnacle margin is 3.7%.

Against the bookmaker: under or over fair

We take the bookmaker's odds on the same pick and see how far they are from fair. Minus means the bookmaker pays less than the chance is worth, plus means more. On the site a ruler shows it: the tick is the fair price, the dot is the bookmaker.

difference = bookmaker odds / fair odds − 1

The bookmaker offers 1.27: 1.27 / 1.30 − 1 = −2.3%, under fair

The bookmaker offers 1.33: 1.33 / 1.30 − 1 = +2.3%, over fair

In an accumulator the margin multiplies

Every pick carries its own margin, and they multiply. Four picks with a 5% margin each: 0.95 × 0.95 × 0.95 × 0.95 = 0.815. The bookmaker keeps 18.5% of the stake on average before kick-off.

So Prescio picks are made from outcomes closest to fair or above it, with the margin of the whole pick next to its odds.

accumulator margin = 1 − accumulator odds at the bookmaker × chance to win

Chance to win

The chance of an accumulator is the product of the fair chances of its picks. We also write it in words, "about 1 in N". When 1 / chance is not a whole number we show both neighbours: 22% is "1 in 4–5", not 4 on one page and 5 on another.

chance to win = chance₁ × chance₂ × … × chanceₙ

Where to place it

An accumulator goes to one bookmaker, so the best price per pick across different bookmakers is no use. We compute the total odds of the whole accumulator at each bookmaker and the payout on your stake. One bookmaker is compared for now; more come in the next updates.

Track record and CLV

The accumulator of the day is saved before kick-off. It cannot be edited or deleted, losses stay.

Before each match we record the fair closing odds. CLV shows how much better the price we took was. Above zero over hundreds of picks means the prices were good, which says more than a short winning run. While the line is updated once a day, CLV is preliminary.

CLV = odds taken / fair closing odds − 1

What we do not do

We do not take bets or promise wins. We give no links to bookmakers and take no money from them. We do not make up chances: the market gives them, not our opinion. You bet yourself, with your own bookmaker.